2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map

by Courtney C Horne @FireezDragon

This is the map Maddow started with when she was illustrating on her show how there could be an electoral college tie.

It works from a point of nine swing states.

via 2012 Presidential Election: Electoral Map.

It makes for an interesting game to move around the swing states to see what different things could happen.

Scenario One:

Romney loses Florida thanks to Paul Ryan’s Medicare vouchers and his immigration policy.

Result:

He has to win the remaining 8 swing states to win.

Scenario Two:

Obama loses Florida because, let’s face it, old people are terrified that he is a secret Kenyan born Muslim. We all know it’s old people who send those conspiracy e-mails and goodness knows Florida is chock full of them.

Result:

It leaves Obama with 31 winning combinations and Romney with 26. Florida would be great for the Obama campaign but it is far from a must win.

Scenario Three:

Obama loses both Florida and Ohio.

Result:

That would put 19 winning combinations left on the table for Obama and 20 for Romney. Even losing those two huge states wouldn’t make the Obama campaign doomed to failure though it would certainly make it a tough climb. He just starts that much ahead before you look at the swing states.

Scenario Four:

Romney loses Ohio because of the fall out surrounding the GM thing and his shipping job’s overseas.

Result:

If he loses Ohio, Romney has to carry both North Carolina and Florida to have a winning combination. If you give him both of those he still has only 6 winning combinations compared to Obama’s eleven. Ohio is pretty necessary for him.

Scenario Five:

Obama loses Ohio

Results:

That gives him 26 winning combinations to Romney’s 21. And there is no particular state that he has to carry at that point to reach a winning combo.

Scenario Six:

Obama carries Ohio and Wisconsin because they love Bill Clinton in the rust belt and they have him out there campaigning hard

Result:

Romney needs all the remaining 7 states to win.

Scenario Seven:

Romney loses Nevada and Colorado over immigration

Result:

To win he needs to carry both Florida and Ohio

Scenario Eight:

Obama loses Virginia and North Carolina because they voted as part of a red southern block

Result:

Obama would have 13 winning combos and Mitt 11. Neither would have a “must win” state yet.

 

 

 

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