My 100 Year US Political Theory

by Courtney C Horne @FireezDragon

I have a loose-broad strokes theory of the next 100 years or so in American politics. I have told a bunch of people my theory in person but I hadn’t bothered to put it into text. I decided after going over it again today that it was time to put it down in writing. Here goes.

1- The republican party commits a slow suicide. They don’t broaden their base. They go further into the far right fundamentalist land until they can no longer win a national election and they start to lose congressional races and eventually at the state level as well. They become so marginalized as to be a fringe group.

2- As this is happening to the GOP, the democratic party moves to the right and takes on a shape something vaguely like the sane libertarians (think Gary Johnson not Ron Paul). They pick up the people who are leaving the GOP because of their crazy stance on social policies. As a result of their move to the right, they upset and alienate the progressive caucus.

3- Something new emerges to the left and becomes the party that the democrats fight for national control with as the republican party essentially ceases to exists. Probably something similar to France’s socialist party.

The alternative is that either the libertarian party gains traction or they seize control of the GOP and then the democrats shift back to the left. However given the democrats slow drift to the right over the last couple decades and the GOP’s inability to change on social issues to be part of the modern world, I think my theory is more likely than that alternative.