A Revision on a Theory

by Courtney C Horne @FireezDragon

I have commonly spoken about my 100 year theory in American politics.  In a nutshell, the GOP commits a slow political suicide, the democrats drift further to the right, and something new emerges to the left.

Well I have a revision. I think now I may call this my 50 year theory- in light of recent events.

Wendy Davis’s heroic filibuster and the amazing events that have lead to thousands of people in the streets in TEXAS of all places yelling about the patriarchy is a sign. It is a sign that the GOP is losing its grip on Texas and along with it the chances of ever winning a presidential election again. Everyone sees it. Progressives excitedly whisper “blue revolution” about the recent events in Texas. And indeed ground swells related to opposition to GOP policies may have helped Obama in a lot of swing states in 2012.  If I was running the democratic organizing program known as “battleground Texas,” I couldn’t have hoped for a better hero than Wendy Davis.

And when the GOP loses Texas, the dominoes will start falling all over the south. I have written about how it would be plausible to turn Louisiana blue and much of what I talked about in that piece, minority turn out, reaching the working poor, could apply all over the south. The south will turn bright blue again (remember, the south only turned red because of the civil rights movement and the southern strategy) and when  it does the Republican party will die.

The world is changing and the culture war is over. And the social conservatives have lost. Gay marriage is viewed by essentially everyone my age (save a few religious extremists) as acceptable. The GOP has refused to change with the world and it will get left behind, rapidly.

And finally the nail in the coffin. The most dangerous accelerant on the self-immolation of the Republican party- John Boehner. Or more specifically his choice to remain speaker rather than save his party. He has decided that he will not bring an immigration bill to the house floor unless it has the support of over half the republicans in the house. He could easily pass something with less of his own caucus and all the Democrats on board. He would lose his speakership in the process but he would slow the decay of his party, possibly by decades.

But instead Boehner has chosen the path that lets him stay speaker a little longer. And the path that cements his party as the party opposed to immigration reform in the minds of the rapidly growing population of Hispanic voters.

And so my theory speeds up. Thanks to Wendy Davis and John Boehner, well things look they are changing. And fast.